Bureau Of Meteorology Forecasts Above-Average Cyclone Season

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecasted an above-average number of tropical cyclones is likely for Australia in 2022-23.

Based on the status of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over July-September, and slightly warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north and east of Australia, it’s predicted the first cyclone to make landfall will be around the first week of December.

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On average 10 to 13 cyclones occur on Australian coastlines, with four typically crossing the coast.

The tropical cyclone season runs usually from November 1 to April 30.

Increased likelihood of cyclones by region 

Australian region: Australia is 56% more likely of having tropical cyclones, with typically the region experiencing four cyclones along its coast in a season.

Western region: The Western region is expected to experience an average amount of tropical cyclones, with the likelihood of more than average at 52%. About 15% to  40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts.

North-western sub-region: The North-western sub-region has a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through the sub-region each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical lows, effect coastal areas of the sub-region.  

Northern region: The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of more tropical cyclones than average. The Northern region experiences around three cyclones each season, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions.

Eastern region: The Eastern region outlook shows a near-average season is likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average. About one quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. 

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